Four years of training data 

• Over four years of training data, 1994 through 1997, some basic statistics are:  Fund 1 (gold) up on 47% of days, annualized return -13.6%  Fund 2 (bonds) up on 41% of days, annualized return 1.9%  Fund 3 (Japan) up on 45% of days, annualized re

• Bond fund performance may be underestimated because of fund distributions. The S&P 500 performs better than the other funds on 31.6% of days. 

• Data-mining lessons:

  • Compare against the best fixed prediction method, not against random.
  • Check and recheck data quality.

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