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Although theoretical understandings of complex adaptive systems are just beginning to gain acceptance, applications are already beginning to flourish. In this talk we cite a set of examples of multi-agent simulation, which use object oriented software to construct artificial economic societies of thousands of synthetic consumers. These models have been put in place to mimic teenagers who listen and purchase popular recorded music, known as J-POP, in Japan. In addition, these models have been used to model other consumer markets, from motion pictures to yogurt and from household cleaners to bulldozers.
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Mr. Farrell is a Partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers, Emergent Solutions Group. He has more than twenty years of experience in high technology industries and has been a consultant with PricewaterhouseCoopers for more than a decade. Mr. Farrell is a leading figure in the application of scientific complexity theory to business. He has been a consultant to companies in entertainment and media, telecommunications, and high technology. His work has involved market forecasting, business process design, and recognization for growth. Recent articles about his accomplishments have been published in The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Fortune, Business Week, and U.S. News and World Report, in addition to TV and radio appearances. Recently Mr. Farrell was asked to run a research and development group at PricewaterhouseCoopers, called Emergent Solutions Group. This group is largely made up of advanced degree professionals from mathematical and scientific fields, and their work has involved novel software tool development for PricewaterhouseCooper's clients. Mr. Farrell's recent accomplishments include: (1) Developed a motion picture forecasting capability for a major studio that allowed more accurate and insightful planning of promotion and distribution approaches. The forecasts utilized proprietary tools developed by the Emergent Solutions Group customized for this client. (2) Designed and implemented an executive management training system for a telecommunications company that faced the onset of full-scale competition. The system, built with Thinking Tools, Inc., represented competitors with artificial intelligence techniques. This tool allowed top management to review a number of scenarios planning exercises and select appropriate tactical and strategic endeavors. (3) Developed a strategic overview of the causes of market share shifts in the long distance telecom market. This work combined primary customer research data with computer simulation to place strategic alternatives into an actionable format for the client. Insight into customer and competitor behavior led to a redefinition of near-term strategic actions and an examination of likely outcomes. (4) Designed and developed a forecasting tool for the recorded music industry. During testing, this tool combined retail store scanner data with airplay, information to give a perspective on the chances that particular artists and title would turn into a major sales "hit". Prior to joining PricewaterhouseCoopers, Mr. Farrell was with Western Union Corporation as Assistant to the Chairman. He was involved with America's space program for over a decade and was part of several NASA flight projects, including a satellite-based global telecommunications network. As a scientist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech, Mr. Farrell received NASA achievement awards for his work in computer image processing, spacecraft mission control, and planetary sciences. Mr. Farrell received an MBA in Finance with honors from Columbia University and a B.A. from Brown University.
